Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary is facing a tough re-election battle on April 12, with many polls suggesting he will lose, but his party has a significant edge due to electoral system tweaks made over the past 16 years, in Budapest, Hungary, where voting is set to begin.

The Hungarian electoral system has been repeatedly modified by Orban's party, Fidesz, to consolidate power and limit opposition, making the upcoming vote free, but not entirely fair, with many critics arguing that these changes have undermined the democratic process. The tweaks have included changing the electoral map, limiting campaign finance, and appointing loyalists to key positions, all of which have given Fidesz an unfair advantage, allowing the party to maintain its grip on power despite waning popularity. Orban's party has also been accused of using state resources to promote its campaign, further blurring the lines between government and party activities.

The significance of these electoral system tweaks cannot be overstated, as they have contributed to a broader pattern of democratic erosion in Hungary, with many observers warning that the country is sliding towards authoritarianism. Orban's government has been criticised for its handling of the media, the judiciary, and civil society, with many independent institutions facing intense pressure and scrutiny. The upcoming election is seen as a crucial test of Hungary's democratic resilience, with many watching to see whether the country will continue down a path of illiberalism or return to a more traditional democratic trajectory. The election also has implications for Hungary's relationships with its European Union partners, who have grown increasingly concerned about the country's democratic backsliding.

The reaction to the election has been intense, with many Hungarians taking to the streets to protest against the government's handling of the campaign, citing concerns over the fairness of the process and the future of democracy in the country. The opposition has also been vocal, accusing Fidesz of cheating and calling for international observers to monitor the vote, to ensure that the election is free and fair. As the vote approaches, all eyes will be on Hungary, with many waiting to see whether Orban will manage to cling to power, or whether the opposition will be able to capitalise on growing discontent and secure a surprise victory, which could have significant implications for the country's future and its relationships with the rest of Europe.